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PE Market To Follow The Upstream Up

- Dec 23, 2017 -

First, the market overview

    International crude oil prices rose sharply, ethylene in Asia go flat, petrochemical manufacturers listing price has stood ten thousand yuan line, the mainstream factory price remained at 9900-10300 yuan / ton. Today's spot market offer small but prices continue to climb, the market supply is small, traders are not in a hurry to offer, wait and see.


    Second, the fundamental analysis

    1. Positive economic data released last night and strong European banking results boosted investor confidence and led to higher commodity prices for crude oil and other commodities. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil futures for delivery in September finally exceeded 80 dollars a barrel, up 3% and closing at 81.34 dollars a barrel for a 12-week high. The data released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed that the July ISM manufacturing index dropped to 55.5 from 56.2 in the previous month, above the average expectation of economists, indicating a good recovery in the manufacturing sector. In addition, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said monetary policy must continue to provide support for the economy. The market generally believes that this speech hinted that the Fed is open to further expand the scale of quantitative easing, the dollar was suppressed.

    2. August 2 upstream ethylene monomer offer go flat, Southeast Asia, ethylene offer 839.5-841.5 US dollars / ton, Northeast Asia ethylene offer 879.5-881.5 US dollars / ton. Market is waiting to see if Formosa Plastics 2 cracker overhaul will be delayed, so the market price into stagnation. Asian naphtha CIF Japan quoted at 666.25 US dollars / ton, up $ 9 over the previous day, Singapore naphtha FOB offer 72.12 US dollars / barrel, up $ 0.85 over the previous day. Market again worried about the lack of demand in the lower reaches, while the Middle East is oversupplied.

    3. In the first half of the year, China's crude oil output was 98.48 million tons, an increase of 5.3% over the same period of last year. The import volume was 117.97 million tons, up 30.2% over the same period of last year. The crude oil processing volume was 205.86 million tons, up by 17.9% over the same period of last year. In June, crude oil output rose 7.4% YoY and imports 22.27mt, a record high monthly import volume. Crude oil processing volume increased 11.1%, of which gasoline output increased 3.7% and diesel output increased 12.2%.

    4. Today, various areas under the flag of petrochemical companies and branches regardless of pricing or listing prices have gone up. Jilin Petrochemical, Daqing Petrochemical, Yangzi Petrochemical, Guangzhou Petrochemical listing price and PetroChina North China, East China, South China have 350-500 yuan and other prices have risen sharply, the current ex-factory price of most manufacturers have successfully exceeded 10,000 mark, the mainstream Price at 10000-10300 yuan.

    5. Data released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) showed that in July, the non-manufacturing business activity index (PMI) in China ended the falling trend for two consecutive months and rose to 60.1%, up 2.7% from the previous month.


    Third, the market

    Overnight crude oil market soared above $ 80 and crossed the psychological barrier, coupled with the upstream petrochemical ex-factory price soared today, so that the spot market across the country today, the full price quote. The current business mentality has become very cautious, some traders reluctant to sell mentality, the market outlook are on the sidelines. Low-pressure transaction price between 9200-9550 yuan / ton, LDPE transaction price between 10800-11100 yuan / ton, LLDPE transaction price between 9750-10000 yuan / ton.

    South China Market: Today's market price boosted by the oil homeopathic slightly higher, a strong market speculation, but the lack of transactions in various regions of the market, so the actual transaction price is not available.

The mainstream price of 9600-9800 yuan / ton, Maoming Petrochemical 7042 reported 9650 yuan / ton, Guangzhou Petrochemical 7042 tax price 9700-9800 yuan / ton, Saudi Arabia 218W reported at 9800 yuan / ton, Jilin Petrochemical 7042 and Dushanzi 7042 reported At 9650 yuan / ton, 2426H at 10400 yuan / ton, 5000S at 10250 yuan / ton.

    North China Market: By the intraday linear market rose, the trader reported a marked increase in overtime, the spot market price range is very variable, from 50 yuan to 200 yuan. Many businesses chose to wait and see attitude, the downstream inquiry reaction is positive, but the actual transaction is still not much improvement. Price of 9700-9900 yuan / ton linear, Qilu Petrochemical 7042 North China tax price at 9900 yuan / ton, Zhongyuan Ethylene 7050 reported 9850 yuan / ton, Daqing Petrochemical, Jilin Petrochemical 7042 reported 9850 yuan / ton.

    East China Market: East China market has become the most intense atmosphere of speculation in the market, significant increases in all regions, traders are not in a hurry due to inventory delivery, the market today offer small, but the upside chaos. Active downstream buyers inquiry, the actual volume was light. DFDA-7042 / Yangzi Petrochemical 9800-10000 yuan / ton, LL0220KJ / Shanghai Secco 9550 yuan / ton, DFDA-7040 / Lanzhou Petrochemical 9,500 yuan / ton, DFDA-7042 / Jilin Petrochemical 9,800 yuan / ton.


    Fourth, outlook outlook

    The international oil price hikes obviously. The ex-factory prices of petrochemical manufacturers continued to rise. The PE market did not increase significantly for the time being. The price range was between 9700-10000 yuan / ton. The recent market gains are clear. In the short term, the market prices will continue to run at high levels.

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